![]() ![]() One school of thought is that the GOP tax cut has helped spur the economy and jobs. Healthcare jobs grew by 27,000 after rising 49,000 in March. Employment in construction was up by 33,000 with gains in nonresidential specialty trade contractors and civil engineering. ![]() Jobs related to professional services led the way, rising by 76,000. This could be welcome news for President Trump as he seeks re-election in 2020. ![]() In my opinion, it implies the economy remains on strong footing and the economic expansion could continue over the short term. The results also blew away the 196,000 jobs created in March. I assumed jobs growth would abate at some point but that has not been the case. The April 2019 jobs report showed total non-farm payroll employment increased by 263,000, exceeding Wall Street forecasts of 190,000. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget.Each month I continue to ponder how long the current economic expansion can continue. Yet while falling short of his hope, it sets up a strong second year - and an even stronger cause/effect relationship with his tax reform victory. His first year economy’s performance was solid, but not spectacular. Obama’s, but with ample room to show tax reform’s boost. It offers the perfect comparison between the Obama and Trump economies: Far better than Mr. However the third and most important, the economy, is proving to be just right. The one too cold may prove to be this year’s. The one too hot was last year’s stock market. Instead he finds three bowls of porridge. They cannot help wondering how he could wander into a den of bears and not get mauled the way Mr. As its effect is felt, especially accelerating economic growth, expect greater popularity. Politically, tax reform’s popularity is beginning to rise, despite unmitigated battering in the press. The Atlanta Fed’s economic model projects 5.4 percent growth for the first quarter. And if 2018 also turned out to be good, critics would have said it was no better than 2017 - so there was neither effect from, nor point to, tax reform.Īlready there are signs 2018 is ready to deliver economically. Obama’s acolytes have tried to credit the former administration for the current’s success. Had 2017 been too hot, it would have been attributed to luck - just as Mr. Never mind that it would have been in-line with Mr. Yet 2017’s biggest contribution will not be in the recovery it started, but in the clear demarcation it provides for his signature achievement. ![]() It was also better than the 1.5 percent annual average during President Obama’s eight years. Its growth rate was far better than 2016’s 1.6 percent. That’s all the better politically for Mr. Second, when you sign it - and, like tax reform, it would not have happened without you - you doubly do.įurther, tax reform gives Mr. As president, you own what happens on your watch. Trump, it sets him up for credit from the widely expected growth.įirst, tax reform happened on Mr. Trump did not get until the very end of 2017 with tax reform. Yet in politics it is tangible action that counts. Absolutely, the expectation anti-business policies will not prevail is a boost. True, increased national confidence helps. While Trump could have claimed ownership for a great first year - and any president would - he lacked a significant policy to attribute growth to. ![]()
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